In November 1991 when Frederick Chiluba was sworn in as President of Zambia’s Third Republic there were those who believed his advent to power heralded the beginning of a new prosperous era for his country. But those dreams have turned to nightmares.
Chiluba came to power as leader of the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) which, from its birth, was an uncomfortable coalition united only by one determination. That was the removal from power of Kenneth Kaunda and his United National Independence Party (UNIP) who had ruled Zambia since independence 27 years earlier.
That much the coalition achieved. Having achieved their limited objective, however, their barely bidden differences began to emerge.
Just two of Chiluba’s original 24-member cabinet, appointed only three-and-a-half years ago, retain their same portfolios. They are Chiluba’s very wealthy (by any standards) relative, Ben Y Mwila, in Defence and a former soldier, Lt Gen Tembo, in Tourism, a potentially lucrative industry which has all but collapsed.
Thirteen other members of that original line-up have either been sacked or resigned whilst nine have switched portfolios in the unending series of changes which only insiders can fathom. And, once again, more changes are in prospect.
But those are the cosmetics. The reality lies elsewhere. When Chiluba became President his grip on power was tenuous. Gradually, however, he has gained real power, although there are many in the MMD who question how he exerts it.
Today the car (the MMD manifesto) is still good but the driver (Chiluba) is not,” said one MMD insider. “So we will have to change the driver.” That will be easier said than done. One MMD member, Dean Mungomba, a former deputy Minister in Chiluba’s Office, has already said he will challenge him for the Presidency at the MMD convention in February 1996.
He says Chiluba has betrayed the trust placed in him and that he no longer listens. If the MMD is to remain in power, Mungomba says, then Chiluba must be replaced. Whilst many in the MMD agree, few rate Mungomba’s chances or those of anyone else highly. The likelihood is that Chiluba will face challenges before and during the Convention but that he will survive. In part, Chiluba’s survival is attributable to the disarray in which the opposition finds itself and the fragmentation of Zambia along ethnic lines.
UNIP, by and large, has become an Eastern Province party more likely to further disintegrate than to regain its former national status. Its new leader, Kebby Musokotwane, is a southerner which allows UNIP a semblance of national identity. But that, too, is cosmetic.
Kaunda (who many believe only passed the Presidential mantle to Musokotwane believing he and his family would retain real power over UNIP) has never endorsed Musokotwane’s leadership and is now actively challenging him, thereby adding to the confusion and division in UNIP.
The party’s convention is scheduled for July this year and Kaunda has said he will not make his intentions known until after he returns from a visit to Japan in about three weeks` time. Meanwhile he continues to behave as if he is already President.
The UNIP central committee has not been able to meet for several months because some 75 per cent of them support Kaunda who appointed them and they believe their fortunes will improve if he returns to power and gets control of the disputed party finances. Under the circumstances, Musokotwane is avoiding another central committee showdown.
But whoever emerges as leader of UNIP may well prove academic in national terms. The conventional wisdom across the political spectrum in Lusaka is that Chiluba would beat either of them, although
Kaunda has more of a national base and therefore might fare better than Musokotwane.
The largely southern and western National Party (NP), which promised so much, appears to be stillborn.
It has just changed its leader, bringing in Humphrey Mulemba, who impressed at his first press conference, actually referring to a programme of action rather than attacking everyone else.
For the moment at least, he is not seen as a serious contender although there are indications that the
monied Asian community, which backed the MMD against UNIP in 1991, are looking for another horse.
Given the disarray in the opposition parties, Chiluba is looking stronger and unlikely to be seriously challenged. But, as the former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said, “A week is a long time in politics”.
Meanwhile, ordinary Zambians suffer acutely. Life expectancy has dropped from 54 to 45 and it is predicted to drop further by the year 2000. Seven percent of households are now child-headed because both parents have died from AIDS.
The national airlines and bus company, both parastatals, have gone into liquidation: the farming and tourism sectors have virtually collapsed; the unions, once Chiluba’s powerbase, have split: over 70 per cent of textile workers have been thrown out of work; and both the education and health sectors continue to deteriorate. There is the ever-increasing smell and sight of escalating decay; at the traffic lights where lines of street kids sell everything from South African apples to Taiwan made bras and on to the townships where some of them find shelter at night.
In part, this is due to the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) inflicted on Zambia by the World Bank without a social safety net being put in place to catch those who fall through the cracks. In part, it is due to the plain bad management by government and Chiluba’s increasingly autocratic and dictatorial style which the MMD accused Kaunda of.
It is a circumstance where unfulfilled promises by Chiluba and the MMD should be ripe for political exploitation. But, between the platitudes about poverty, the opposition seems more intent on annihilating each other, thereby clearing the way for Chiluba’s return. (SARDC)
