The eighth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-8) predicts a tricky rainfall season for southern Africa, ranging from above normal to below normal rainfall.

In a statement at the end of their recent meeting in Harare, SARCOF-8 predicts that the central parts of the SADC region covering Angola, Zambia, northern Botswana, northern, extreme northern Namibia, extreme northern Malawi, southern DRC, and western Tanzania and the Indian ocean islands of Mauritius and Seychelles, have higher chances of receiving normal to above normal rainfall during the months of October to December 2004.

The extreme northern (northern DRC) and southern parts of the SADC region (South Africa, Swaziland, Lesotho, southern Mozambique, southern Botswana, southern Zimbabwe and southern Namibia) have increased chances of experiencing normal to below normal rainfall during the same period. It is also predicted that eastern Tanzania, much of Malawi and northern Mozambique will experience below normal to normal rainfall.

The period January to March 2005 will see the bulk of the region receiving normal to above normal rainfall, with the exception of parts of Zimbabwe, Botswana, central Mozambique, South Africa, eastern Tanzania and Mauritius, which have increased chances of normal to below normal rainfall. This is despite the anomalous warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is being associated with a developing weak El Nino phenomenon.

The El Nino is usually associated with below normal rainfall conditions over southern Africa. The memorable El Nino of 1997/98 had devastating impact on much of southern Africa causing a severe drought.

The rainfall forecast for the 2004/05 rainfall season presents challenges for crop production in southern Africa. The rainfall outlook suggests near-normal crop production conditions for the region, with the southern parts of South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique the most affected.

Of particular concern is the low rainfall expected in January to March 2005 in the maize production belt of Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa, and eastern Tanzania. At this time of the season, maize, which is the staple food for much of the SADC region, is at the critical tasselling stage.

A poor 2004/05 rainfall season would have a negative impact in southern Africa given that parts of the region are facing critical food shortages. The Famine Early Warning System Network estimates an overall cereal production shortfall of 1.5 million tonnes from the 2003/04 season, with Angola, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique and Swaziland the most affected countries.

However, domestic cereal availability improved considerably in Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia, compared to the 2002/03 season. These countries are projecting exportable maize surpluses, but this is only sufficient to cover the import requirements of Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland.

It is also important to look beyond agro-climatic factors and take into account other factors such as availability of seed and fertilizers, farmer access to finance, incentives for crop production and the provision of extension services.

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