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Halfway through the
2000/2001 rainy season, the average rain fall situation looks bright for
much of southern Africa, but food security remains uncertain as the region
expects some cereal deficits in the current marketing year.
Earlier in the season, weather experts
at the Southern Africa Region Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) in Botswana
predicted normal to above normal rain-fall for most parts of the region between
October 2000 and March 2001.
According to SARCOF, there will be normal to below
normal rainfall in northern Tanzania; normal to above normal rainfall in central
Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, central and southern Mozambique, much of
Botswana and Namibia, southern Malawi, Lesotho, Mauritius and Swaziland.
Above normal rainfall was forecast in Angola, Botswana’s
north-eastern corner, southern Tanzania, DRC, northern Malawi, northern Mozambique,
Namibia’s Caprivi strip and northern and western Zambia.
At the climate outlook forum in
Botswana last September, participants reviewed the state of the global
ocean-atmospheric system and its implications for the region.
Among the principal factors taken
into account were the current state of the La Nina and the sea-surface
temperatures over much of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans. |
Normal to above normal rainfall was experienced over much of the sub-region
for the period of November to December. Northern Tanzania, however, has
received below normal rainfall. There was an erratic onset of the short rains in
Tanzania, similar to last year. This resulted in food shortages in some parts of the
country.
However, with a seasonal forecast of normal to above
normal rainfall across most parts of the region, combined with a high water-table following last
season’s heavy rains, there is still concern about flooding, especially in low-lying areas.
Following two wet seasons and
unprecedented flooding in the eastern and southeastern countries of Botswana,
Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe, there are fears of possible
further flooding in low-lying areas where the water tables are high and soils
have remained saturated.
According to SARCOF, flooding could occur in these
areas, even from normal rainfall conditions. Flooding was experienced early in the season
in parts of South Africa especially KwaZulu-Natal, and Mozambique’s central and
southern provinces during the first half of the rainy season.
There have also been fears for some food shortages in
some countries in the region following reports that areas planted by December were less
than the same period last year due to input shortages, both seeds and farm implements.
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According to the SADC Food
Security
Bulletin published by the Regional
Early Warning Unit (REWU), lack of resources
to purchase, and the unavailability
and inaccessibility of commercial input supplies to many smallholders were
reported in Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe, despite the input
subsidy programmes put in place by the respective governments.
Cereal availability in the SADC region excluding the
DRC and Seychelles for the current marketing year assessed at 28.51 million tonnes has been
described as insufficient to cover domes-tic and strategic reserve requirements of
28.81 million tonnes, leaving an overall cereal deficit of 293,000
tonnes.
The current deficit is significantly lower than the 2.19
million tonnes during the 1999/2000 marketing year. All major staples except maize
show short-falls during the current marketing year.
REWU predicts that only Malawi, South Africa and
Zambia will have an overall cereal surplus during the 2000/ 2001 marketing year.
The rest of the regions face overall cereal deficits ranging
from 109,000 tonnes in Swaziland to about 1.17 million tonnes in Tanzania.
An overall regional maize surplus of 1.71 million tonnes is
predicted for the current marketing year, an increase from the 1.33 million tonnes
assessed last July. The increase is attributed to an expected increase in maize output in
South Africa.
by Tinashe Madava |
