A whole new era of South African politics - South Africa - Elections '99 - Sustainable Democracy

by Hugh McCullum

PRETORIA, 4 June 1999
The euphoric celebrations are over and President-elect
Thabo Mbeki is back to work in his gothic office in the Union Buildings here today, undoubtedly shuffling the cards around containing the names for his new
post-Mandela cabinet.

For the African National Congress (ANC), with its sweep to an overwhelming majority in Parliament in Wednesday's election, snatching control of seven provinces and likely to join coalition governements in the other two -- Western
Cape and KwaZulu-Natal -- a whole new era and realignment of political forces is rapidly emerging which, in its own way is even more significant than the historic 1994 elections when non-racial, non-sexist multi-party voting occurred for the first time in the country's history.

Results are still trickling into election central at Pretoria Showgrounds and will not likely be firmly verified by the complex system for another day. At the time of writing (noon Friday) 15, 531,842 votes had been counted and verified, leaving only a few thousands still to come, mostly from remote rural areas. ANC was so far ahead that all other 15 parties could only look back in envy, but still dangling by a thread over its two-thirds majority. It now has 66.3 percent of the total votes cast and requires 67 percent. Election officials say 85 percent of the country's 18.3 million eligible voters cast ballots.

But nerve-jangling is the political game. These few remaining votes could upset more than ANC's try for two-thirds of the proportionally-represented seats in
Parliament.

Indeed, as dawn broke this morning to grey, wet skies -- unprecedented weather here for this time of year -- it more than matched the mood of the battered New National Party (NNP) which was humiliated at the polls, running even behind the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) now challenging the seemingly certain hold the Democratic Party (DP) had on second place and the right to lead the Opposition
in Parliament.

Ironically, the IFP could lose its Zulu stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal where it ran neck-and-neck with ANC each at 40 percent. In the Western Cape ANC seems to have edged out the ruling NNP with 41.5 percent of the vote to 38.5 percent.

Already serious talks are being held in both provinces about forming "grand coalitions" with ANC. Indeed, the DP itself has talked unofficially about the possibility of similar co-operation of opposition parties in the National
Assembly, a move considered doomed, given the DPs aggressive "fight back" campaign sloganeering.

But, perhaps the real political story of this election is the demise of the NNP, successor to the party which ruled apartheid South Africa from 1948 until 1994 and held onto power until former Deputy President F.W de Klerk took it into opposition during the Mandela years.

It has virtually been wiped off the electoral map. Trailing in its stronghold of the Western Cape, supplanted as Official Opposition in seven provinces and running behind the DP and IFP nationally, analysts are predicting its demise
after more than 50 years of National Party politics.

The crisis facing the party, says University of Port Elizabeth political scientist Susan Booysen is "a life or death one. It went from 20 percent of the vote and official opposition status to fourth place with less than eight percent. It has to face a major realignment with groups like the DP or bring in all the right-wing volk such as (Konstand) Viljoen's white homeland party which could further marginalize it."

People have no idea how badly split the once cohesive Afrikaaner community is and how centrist NNP has become. The three other right-wing parties garnered
fewer than one percent.

At party headquartersin Pretoria, Marthinus van Schalkwyk, the bespectacled and benign leader was bewildered.

"I'm shell-shocked. We had hoped to offer a strong opposition to ANC. I don't intend to resign as leader but we must do a radical review of our policies and strategies. We decided to be inclusive. We could have opted for the approach of our predecessor and rallied people of basis of racial feelings but what we will not do, is become part of a right-wing laager that will further isolate the minority groups in this country."

The DP, too, showed some signs of uncertainty in its role of opposition leader as the IFP slowly crept up towards second place. Its combative leader, Tony Leon last night pledged to "fight forward" now after his successful "fight back" campaign. But, as IFP creeps ahead, Leon may be less confident. Still, for a party which grew from less than 1.5 percent to nearly 10 percent based on attracting disaffected members from all parties, but especially the NNP, it was a "smashing victory."

As back-room talks about a "Codesa" of opposition parties begin to emerge, both Leon and van Schalkwyk don't rule it out but the variety of ideologies renders such a move fragile. Would IFP join or realign itself more with ANC? Can such a coalition contain extremists on the left and right, both of whom did so badly.

Indeed, another feature of the election was the collapse of these once-vaunted ideologically-based movements. On the left the Azanian People's Organisation (AZAPO) and the Pan-Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC) failed dismally,
garnering just 0.5 and 0.7 percent respectively. In fact PAC did so badly that its new leader Bishop Stanley Mogoba has said he will resign.

Similarily the right too collapsed. Viljoen's Freedom Front (FF) and the Afrikaaner Eenheidsbeweging virtually disappeared from the results board.

Only the United Democratic Movement (UDM) lead by ANC defector Bantu Holomisa and former NP stalwart Roelf Mayer performed as expected, gaining about 3.5 percent of the national vote and forming the official opposition in three provinces.

"We have done well for a new party. Bantu will be a breath of fresh air in the Parliament and will be the first real black opposition leader," Mayer told a press conference.

What this election finally showed is the maturity of South Africans less than a decade after half a century of racist apartheid. The extremes are falling away, the ANC is hugely popular and the voters are filled with optimism. The system works.

As an emotional Mbeki said when he stepped before his frenzied supporters out in the Mid Rand's ANC headquarters "the women, the poor, black and white, all
colours and all sectors of South Africa have unequivocally given ANC a further mandate." (SARDC)