Massive voter turnout gives ANC two-thirds majority - South Africa - Elections '99 - Sustainable Democracy

by Hugh McCullum

"Voter apathy?" "What voter apathy?"

South Africa's President-elect Thabo Mbeki made these words his campaign mantra as pundits and politicians alike claimed the African National Congress's failed policies on jobs and crime would turn off the 18.3 million voters in yesterday's
marathon 24-hour election.

Just to make certain the point got home, the media and academics compared -- unfavourably -- President Nelson Mandela's character and charisma with Mbeki's more restrained style, ignoring of course the fact that the deputy president had been running the ANC government for the last five years.

Today South Africa came of age as a multi-racial, multi-party democracy. And 85 percent of the "apathetic" electorate turned out in an election which gave ANC a stunning two-thirds majority and reduced the former apartheid ruling National
Party (now the New National Party NNP) to at least third place.

Voters, parties and the electoral system, without exception, said there was no fraud, little violence and a huge turnout of tolerant, enthusiastic voters, many of whom waited long into the night and early morning, hours after the official close of polls.

For ANC and Mbeki it was proof-positive that the cynics were wrong, that millions wanted the policies of ANC to continue and that they trusted them to govern the country for another five years despite the media and politicians' concentration on South Africa's high crime and unemployment rates during the election campaign.

By two this morning, with some polls still open, the denizens of the cavernous, high-tech media centre, housing journalists from across the world, were giving more attention to the race for the official opposition which quickly settled down to the largely white liberal Democratic Party led by Tony Leon, the NNP of Marthinus von Schalwyk and Mangosuthu Buthelezi's Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).
Already coaltions and compromises are being sought among some of the smaller opposition parties to form a more unified front in the face of ANC's overwhelming victory.

But for now, Leon was gloating in the press centre that his more than a million votes would give the DP th role of Official Opposition in the National Assembly or parliament.

Afrikaaner observers were calling for a reassessment of the policies of NNP and at least three other Afrikaaner parties whose influence is on the wane and has split the once unified white community. Indeed, the future of NNP is said to be
in serious question.

South Africa uses a proportional system of government representative, the Constitution says, of the wide variety of ethnic and political beliefs in the so-called Rainbow Society. This "list system" is not based on constituencies but on percentages of votes cast for a party. Even the president is not elected directly but is named from the party garnering the highest number of votes, in this case the ANC. Any party which receives 10 percent in an election, for example, will be allocated 10 percent of the seats in the National Assembly which consists of not less than 350 members and not more than 400.

Provincial elections held at the same time yesterday also were easily swept by ANC in seven of the nine provinces. However, two tight races continue in KwaZulu-Natal with IFP holding a slight lead over ANC and NNP battling hard with ANC to hold its only provincial government in the Western Cape.

Pundits who worried that ANC's two-thirds majority might lead Mbeki to change the Constitution gradually to impose a one-party system in South Africa also seem wrong. Mbeki, Mandela and virtually every other ANC leaders scoff at the notion. For one thing, the areas in which the Constitution can be amended by parliament are limited and do not include, for example, extending the president's term beyond two or to include a single ruling party. Indeed the ANC majority cannot change any of the "entrenched" clauses and observers say, will
likely only use the two-thirds majority to make economic and social changes.

"Mbeki needs a strong mandate to be able to administer the strong medicine that is need by the weakening economy and the equally strong medicine needed to substantially reduce runaway urban crime," said economist Patrick Mchunu of a Sandton-based investment house.

Mbeki made few sweeping promises on the campaign trail although he assured people that ANC would accelerate to delivery of services, although governed by a budget of fiscal restraint.

He also pledged to fight rampant corruption within his own ANC ranks and raging urban crime but said the success of this campaign would depend on community support and participation. He raised the question about what went wrong with morality in South Africa where corruption and crime including violence and sexual abuse have loomed large.

Voters were obviously convinced that Mbeki was the right man to fill Mandela's shoes, although Mbeki himself says "I will never grow my feet nor wear flowered shirts" in reference to Mandela's relaxed mode of dress. Mbeki, who spent years
abroad, lacks the charisma of Mandela and his common touch. However, business and the vast majority of voters see managerial vision as South Africa's greatest need.

Winnie Mandela who swept into the ANC top echelons again said the picnic will be over under in the new government.

"We gained political freedom in 1994, this election must bring economic freedom. People took advantage of the elderly statesman (her former husband) and abused the process of transformation. The new president is a no-nonsense man. Everybody is going to have to get down to business."

Indeed, most early commentators stressed the need to continue the vision of Mandela for a multi-racial South Africa strong on human rights but with a clear managerial and delivery system in place.

"Although Mbeki ran the Mandela administration, it was not Mbeki's team. There were a lot of old hands in cabinet who came from the liberation struggle. Look for many of them to be quietly and honourably retired as a new post-Mandela era
is born ," said a party insider.

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange dropped slightly as the two-thirds majority projection began to flash on television screens but was dismissed as a slight case of jitters emanating from European and American markets.

Mbeki is generally credited in London and New York as the architect of post-apartheid reforms in economic, mining and financial sectors which have
opened South Africa to the global economy.

Business seems confident in the GEAR (growth, employment and redistribution)
program but anxiously awaits, as do most voters, to see it delivered in
concrete terms. "ANC has the mandate, now it must show the people it can deliver
on all these sectors -- employment, housing, education, health and crime reduction," said Marinus Darling of Sanlam group. "The pressure is on now, not from the smaller political parties -- they are too narrow ideologically -- but from the people who have given ANC such an overwhelming vote of confidence."

The many smaller parties will likely fade away as election bills come in and their moment of glory before the cameras fades. Left will be the opposition DP, a coalition of pro-Afrikaaner parties which may not hold and the regional political bosses like Buthelezi and Bantu Holomisa of the United Democratic Movement (UDM) both of whose parties fared poorly. Buthelezi may well end up in
a senior cabinet post, even a possible deputy president, as his IFP grows ever closer to ANC. The chaos and violence of 1994 was not repeated this time round and there are unofficial accords being negotiated in KwaZulu-Natal.

Many observers see a realignment of the opposition, perhaps with fewer parties and more emphasis on developing alternative policies than the carping and in-fighting which has split them wide open.

"The people have showed us that they believe South Africa was badly damaged by apartheid in every sector. They understand that and they believe ANC needed the first five years for consolidation and now another five years for delivery. But next time, if the delivery of promises fails, they may be ready to look at viable alternatives. The election was a clear and overwhelming vote of confidence in ANC, but it was not an endless blank cheque," said a DP supporter critical of Leon's alleged arrogance and lack of in-depth policies.

South Africans did it again. Faced by predictions of doom from the prophets and soothsayers, the mood of the voters in their long, tedious queues remained, like the country, bouyant and even festive.

This election was almost as historic as that of 1994, a government freely, democratically and overwhelmingly elected and leadership peacefully changed. Viva! (SARDC)