High stakes as Malawi braces for polls - Elections '99 - Sustainable Democracy

BLANTYRE, 14 June 1999
Malawi braces for its second multiparty elections Tuesday in what observers here expect to be a closely contested race for the Presidency and Parliament.

Campaigning closed Saturday with huge crowds characterising both ruling opposition party rallies around the country.

The Ruling United Democracy Front (UDF) is expected to face stiff opposition from a coalition of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and the Alliance for Democracy (AFORD), which on paper command a superior aggregate support.

Electoral experts say as in the pluralist elections in 1994, voting is likely to be largely on regional lines with the UDF maintaining a hold on the more populous southern part, the MCP and AFORD taking central and northern regions respectively.

Of the five million registered voters, 2,4 million are in the more industrialised southern region of the country while 1,975,203 votes lie in the central. The northern with 678,906 has the least but is playing the pivotal role of boosting opposition chances of an upset through the central-north alliance forged by the MCP and the AFORD.

MCP leader Gwanda Chakuamba is running for President with Chakufwa Chihana of AFORD as his running mate on one ticket, a controversial pairing that was challenged unsuccessfully by the Electoral Commission in the High and Supreme Courts.

The opposition alliance posses a real threat to the presidency of the incumbent Bakili Muluzi and his party UDF, but analysts believe he may squeeze through on a reduced parliamentary majority.

In the 1994 elections, Muluzi defeated the late Hastings Kamuzu Banda, ending a 30 year one-party dictatorship and dislodging the MCP from state power. However, the combined strength of the opposition in parliament was greater than the new UDF governments. The elections brought 85 UDF, 56 MCP and 36 AFORD members of parliament to the 177 seat chamber.

"In theory, if the alliance sweeps the north and central, they will have won but I do not think it is gonna work," President Muluzi's Press Secretary Al Osman told SARDC Monday.

Osman believes Muluzi has done enough ground work to sway the northern vote-even marginally and to win a substantial number of seats in the central region and maintain power.

"During the Banda era, the north was called the 'dead north' because there was no development there. When President Muluzi came in, he has built a modern hospital in Mzuzu district, established a tobacco auction floor and built a University there. He has made constant forays into the north from 1994," he said.

In this southern African country, where ethnic conciousness manifests during elections, the composition of a party hierachy is critical to achieving a national vote-something Muluzi's aides believe UDF has done by apportioning key positions to people from the north and central.

The MCP-AFORD alliance also revolves around this intricate regional liaison on a bigger scale. The parties this time aspire to an enlarged national assembly at 193 seats up from 177.

Voting begins at 0600 hrs and unverified results will be recorded as they come in on poster-size papers pasted around the results centre in Blantyre's Chiri-chiri hall, for all observors, parties and public to view.

The Malawi Broadcasting Corporation (MBC) will carry live radio transmissions of events throughout the Tuesday.

The country's urban centres are generally quiet with an aura of anticipation permeating the streets. The Electoral Commission is confident the polls will record a high turn-out, having registered more than 95 percent of the eligible voters. (SARDC)