SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE
The trends in the region are signposts to the future, providing a snapshot of
what life is likely to be in the basin. The scenarios inform society of where it is likely
to be if it makes certain interventions today. Two possible scenarios emerge from the
history of development in the Zambezi Basin; the beaten track on which society has been
travelling all along or a new highway towards a state of sustainability.
Towards a state of sustainability
The familiar road of environmental management in the Zambezi Basin is clear: it is
defined along national boundaries, administrative and sectoral tracks along, which
deviation is limited. Tackling issues in the basin using the ecosystem approach is a new
concept fraught with many uncertainties and risks national governments may not want to
take. It is therefore, more comfortable and convenient to use old approaches while
tinkering at the edges with new innovations. The highway towards a state of sustainability
entails a major shift on issues such as population, poverty, gender, investment, water
management, biodiversity, and policy and management.
Population growth
In the Zambezi Basin, the addition of about one million more people every year, the
majority of whom have to depend on the natural resource capital for survival, is
unsustainable. With a total population of more than 38.4 million people, whose number will
double in less than three decades, the basin will continue to experience demands on water
for domestic, industrial and irrigation use, drawing upon water required for environment
regeneration.
In terms of the environment, a high population growth rate fuels resource
overexploitation. Left uncontrolled, overexploitation can lead to the extinction of some
species. The expansion of settlements due to population growth not only contributes to the
utilisation of ecologically sensitive areas but also exacerbates human-animal conflicts.
Reports of such conflicts are on the increase in the basin.
Poverty
The failure to effectively deal with rampant poverty in the basin will continue to pose
a serious threat to both human and ecosystems health. With the majority of the people
lacking human dignity due to poverty, the challenge for the basin states is to pursue
economic development to raise the standard of living of the majority and not just
facilitate the amassing of wealth into a few hands. This is generally the case in many of
the countries, and is a time bomb if the majority continue to be alienated from accessing
even the basic of resources. With no security of tenure and access to resources, the
"tragedy of the commons" as postulated by Garrett Hardin in 1968 will set back
any sustainable development initiatives as the poor overexploit common resources.
Gender
While gender awareness is increasing, application of gender considerations on the
ground is still weak. One of the contributory factors is lack of reliable data,
disaggregated along gender lines. The continued weak collection of such data, as is the
case at the moment, will continue to hamper efforts to mainstream gender in all aspects of
human development and environmental management. Without investment in data collection and
analyses, the magnitude of women's role in natural resource management will continue to be
anecdotal, minimising their input towards sustainable development. Another threat to
appreciating the role of women is the apparent chauvinism displayed by some who describe
the fight for women's rights as an urban phenomenon with no rural support.
Trends show that women in the basin are still a vulnerable group that is yet to enjoy
equality in status and access to services and resources with their male counterparts.
Employment
With the population growing rapidly in many of the basin states, the workforce is also
increasing at a fast rate. Given the slow economic growth rate, hundreds of thousands of
people are finding themselves unemployed. In Zimbabwe, unemployment is one of the reasons
that have been given for the increase in gold panning. Unemployment has also seen growth
in the informal sector. While this is now an important part of the economy, some informal
sector activities such as the production of curios, has led to the overexploitation of
forests to support the carving industry.
Economic restructuring has resulted in the gradual decline in formal employment. For
example, Zambia had an unemployment rate of 13 percent in 1986, and this rose to 19.6
percent in 1996, representing a total of 730,000 jobless people. The implementation of the
economic structural adjustment programme has contributed to the decline in formal
employment, as well as deterioration in not only lifestyles but also the condition of the
environment. For example in Zambia, unemployed people are settling in forested areas in
the Kafue sub-basin, causing massive deforestation and leading to watershed degradation as
well as affecting water quality and quantity. Dependence on resource sectors will continue
to be a risk for the basin states, increasing the unemployment figures and indirectly
contributing to the "mining" of natural resources and resultant degradation of
the environment.
HIV/AIDS
Southern Africa is the region worst hit by HIV/AIDS with about 19 million infected in
1997. HIV/AIDS, which has been described by SADC as "one of the greatest social
problems facing Africa", will continue to wreak havoc in the basin with many of the
countries experiencing a decline in life expectancy. Despite the recognition that AIDS is
a pandemic, regional responses to date have not been very effective. In fact, some
countries tried to sweep the problem under the carpet so as not to jeopardise investment
and tourism. HIV/AIDS has also placed heavy demands on the health sector, sending service
costs spiraling and increasing the costs of importing drugs. Many thousands of people have
no ready access to essential drugs and where such drugs are available, the costs are
prohibitive. HIV/AIDS is killing many of the basin people still in their productive years,
contributing to low human capacity in many areas. The true cost of this pandemic is yet to
be fully understood.
Water
Growing demands on water resources in the basin can provide greater opportunities for
regional cooperation or may cause conflict. Ineffective planning, which does not take into
account the ever-increasing needs of people and industry, is unsustainable and will result
in unnecessary competition within basin states and among themselves. Already some of the
countries have experienced water-use conflicts, which have pitted one community against
another. According to projections, Malawi will experience absolute water scarcity by 2025
while Mozambique, Tanzania and Zimbabwe will be water stressed. The remaining basin states
will have water quality and dry season problems. Such projections could end up being a
disaster if planning for the next 25 years does not start now.
The basin still lacks socio-economic instruments, which encourage cost effectiveness,
increase investments in water infrastructure, and give incentives for efficient use of
water as well as pollution control. Top-down approaches, which are common in the basin in
terms of water supply also limit public participation, promoting unsustainable water
consumption patterns. All these measures should be reviewed and made more effective.
Wetlands
The Zambezi wetlands play a significant role in raising the standard of living for
communities living in these areas. Such wealth could, however, be lost and more rural
people impoverished if settlements and other human activities are allowed to expand in the
wetlands. Such expansion could also lead to the decline in tourism activities. The
destruction of wetlands is a reality. Outside the basin in South Africa, for example, 50
percent of the wetlands have been lost due to overexploitation and agricultural expansion.
In Mauritius, tourism development sites such as hotels and lodges are replacing most
wetlands.
Biodiversity
The management bias towards one species or a number of species at the expense of others
provides cover for exploitation to extinction of some species. Selectivity in terms of
biodiversity conservation is shortsighted and unsustainable.
Different species, for example the rhino, have over the past decades been either
overexploited to extinction or are now endangered. Overexploitation has also impacted on
other species, including plants. The clearance of forests is one of the major threats to
biodiversity through the destruction of habitats. In the basin states for example, a total
of about 1.15 million hectares of forest were converted to other uses every year between
1990-95. The basin's total forest cover declined from about 147.1 million ha to 141.3
million ha in the same period.
There is, therefore, a need for more holistic biodiversity conservation, covering many
species and focusing on the whole basin rather than selected or more popular areas, an
approach which will also help provide understanding of the complex interactions that make
up ecosystems. New species, which had hitherto been ignored or unknown will get attention,
unlocking some of the biodiversity treasures, which exist in the region.
Policy and strategy
Virtually all countries in the basin have one or more policies relating to environment
and development. Unfortunately, some of these policies are not in sync, often resulting in
competing sectoral interests. Such an approach to environmental management, which
characterised the 20th century, can only exacerbate an unsustainable situation. National
policies, which also are not in sync with regional trends, can only serve to enhance
unsustainable activities.
At the regional level, SADC has been described as "one of the most successful
regional organisations ever to operate in sub-Saharan Africa, perhaps even the entire
developing world". The danger to such cooperation is sovereignty. It has been argued
that countries should relinquish some degree of decision-making to SADC for regional
cooperation to produce significant benefits. For example, for a free trade area to work in
the region, it requires "major institutional steps and loss of sovereignty".
This would also be true of cooperation in all other sectors, particularly in the Zambezi
Basin. This is unlikely in the short-term, and may hamper efforts being made to look at
the basin as one unit. The result would be that national interests would continue to
dominate, contributing to unsustainable policies and strategies. Political and
institutional will has to be nurtured.
Policy and strategy initiatives should be more responsive to scientific developments.
Even though developed on a sectoral or issue basis, policies and strategies should take a
more integrated approach, reflecting the complexity of both human development and
ecological functions. The SADC sector coordination units as well as the national contacts
points should have greater coordination both at national and regional levels. As the
policies and strategies become more cohesive, the SADC region should be able to make
stronger contributions at various international fora convened to discuss environment and
development issues.
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