News Features
Deteriorating Security Situation Worsens Refugee Problem
Prospects for a Bumper Harvest in the Region Unlikely

Documents
Communique from the Extraordinary SADC Summit in Maputo, Mozambique, 16 January 2000

    The prime November planting period in southern Africa passed without the expected significar soaking rains, which has restricted planting and land preparations in the main grain regions c Swaziland and Zimbabwe while most farnlers in Malawi, South Africa and Tanzania resorted to dr planting.

    Climate experts, however had predicted above-average rainfall in a seasonal forecast issued last September by the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) for much of the region.' Only the northern and eastern. parts of Tanzania were forecast to have below-normal precipitĄtion through the critical October to March rainy season. However, contrary to the forecast, rains came much too late and in some cases not at all, leaving man countries facing serious food security problems.

    In Tanzania, once the early short rains were over, dry conditions prevail leaving poor harve' prospects and food security problems across most of the country except in the northwest and Lake Victoria regions.

    Angola, crippled by civil war, has gloomy production prospects for this harvest season. Production hampered by poor rains and the on-going violence which has forced people to flee their fields for relative safety of government-controlled cities.

    The fighting, which has intensified in recent months in the main cereal growing central highlands, has led to the displacement of over a million people. Most refugees are now camped in barren terrain in cities such as Huambo, Malange, Kuito, Ltlena and Uige.

    Reports from UN agencies operating in Angola indicate worsening food security prospects. Accordin to the official Angolan radio station RNA, crop yields may also drop in the coastal province of Benguela due to flooding caused by torrential rains which killed 14 people and left 8,000 homeless. The rains burst the river Coporolo's banks flooding 6,000 hectares of land and destroyed up to 22,000 million tonnes worth nearly US$I 0 million.

    Malawi's Meteorological Department predicted that most parts of the country would receive normal to above normal rainfall during the rainy season. However, only erratic rains were experienced in the Northern and parts of the Central Region from October to December.

    Harvests are also likely to be adversely affected by lack of fertilizer, especially among smallhold, tarmers. Recent media reports indicate that the government has launched a US$29 million food security scheme to boost agricultural productivity by providing an estimated 2.8 million farming households with t'ree fertilizer and seeds.

    Reports in Zimbabwe indicate that despite torecasts of above-average rains, maize output may decline from the 1.54 million tonnes produced last season due to low prices to producers and high input costs. However, October thunderstorms throughout the country enabled most communal famers to embark on early land preparation in readiness tor the cropping season.

    SARCOF reveals that most of Botswana received below normal rainfall during the October December 1999 period.

    Assessment of crop growing conditions by the SADC Regional Early Warning Unit shovys that as of January, widespread rains were experienced throughout the region bringing relief to the moisture stressed crops in central and eastern parts of the region,

    "Although some crops were already wilting or highly stressed, it is expected that most will recovel although yields might be slightly compromised," says Kennedy Masamwu, coordinator of the Regional Remote Sensing Unitin Zimbabwe,

    According to the regional SADC Food Security Quarterly Bulletin, AgroMet, most of the crop growing areas of South Africa, Swaziland, southern Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia and Angola have had good rains at the beginning of January 2000.

    Some areas, especially in Angola and Swaziland are however beginning to suffer from water-Iogging crop nutrient leaching and weed control.

    "For the 1999/2000 marketing year, SADC faces a regional deficit of 2.77 million tonnes for a cereals .tombined, whilst the total cereal availability of 24.00 million tonnes is insufficient to cover total requirements estimated at 26.76 million tonnes," reports AgroMet.