MOZAMBIQUE, NAMIBIA GO TO POLLS
by SARDC Correspondents
The curtain comes down on southern Africa's five elections that had been lined up for the year as Mozambique and Namibia go to polls between 30 November and 4 December. The election tide began in June when South Africa held its second multi-racial polls, followed by Malawi in the same month and later, Botswana in October.
With 10 political parties and three coalitions registered with the National Elections Commission (CNE) for Mozambique's second multi-party parliamentary and presidential elections on 3-4 December, the key issue emerging is whether the ruling Frelimo party can gain a two-thirds majority in the Assembly of the Republic in order to push through constitutional amendments denied it by the opposition Renamo in the last sitting of the 250-member parliament.
President Joaquim Chissano is widely excepted to score an easy victory over his only rival, former rebel leader, Afonso Dhlakama who heads Renamo and its coalition of 10 smaller parties which united a few months ago to try and defeat Chissano under the name of the Renamo Electoral Union. The other parties and coalitions will only stand in the parliamentary elections.
There is some concern that, with Chissano more popular than the party he leads, Parliament could again frustrate his plans for development and for an amended constitution. In order to amend the 1990 constitution, two-thirds of the Assembly of the Republic must approve. In late September, after four years of work by an ad hoc commission drawing up detailed amendments, Renamo killed the draft by simply refusing to vote. In order to achieve two-thirds, Frelimo required 167 votes, however with its ally, the Democratic Union (UD) it could only muster 138.
The series of amendments dealt with matters such as changing from a powerful executive presidency to a semi-presidential system, curtailing the powers of the presidency and increasing those of the prime minister and the Assembly itself. Both Frelimo and Renamo had agreed to this amendment when Renamo suddenly changed its mind on the constitutional package, claiming it wanted an even more powerful presidency and that it was upset over the discussions for a new flag and national anthem.
Frelimo charged that Dhlakama changed his mind on the consensus because he feels Renamo will win the elections and he wants wide-ranging presidential powers for his own party. "The amendments which were before Parliament were non-partisan," says Armando Guebuza, head of Frelimo's parliamentary group, "and were the qualitative development of the 1990 constitution and would have allowed more permanent participation by citizens and civil society in governance."
The amendments have effectively died and with them, the consensus which had been reached. Depending on the outcome of the election, the draft amendments could be reintroduced in the next National Assembly but until then, at least, the 1990 constitution remains in effect.
It was drawn up after a prolonged and vicious civil war between Renamo and the government which ended finally in 1992, providing for a permanent ceasefire and elections in 1994. Chissano won the presidency in 1994 and Frelimo took 129 seats to Renamo's 112 in parliament, the remainder divided among smaller parties. Renamo's strength is still in the northern part of the country while Frelimo's strongholds are mainly in the south.
The electoral commission has announced that some 7.4 million voters, about 85 percent of those eligible, have registered to cast ballots, a higher number and percentage than in 1994. The population of Mozambique is about 15.3 million.
International observers have given high praise to the CNE for its registration work which involved compiling a completely new electoral register. A number of national, regional and international observer missions are arriving including the SADC Electoral and Parliamentary Forums, the Organisation of˜African Unity, the Commonwealth and the European Union.
In Namibia's 30 November to 1 December poll, eight political parties will contest the parliamentary elections with the main parties in the race being the ruling South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO), Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA) and the newly formed Congress of Democrats (CoD). In the presidential race, three candidates are set to challenge the incumbent president Sam Nujoma. These are Ben Ulenga of CoD, Katuutire Kaura of DTA and Moses Katjuongwa of the Democratic Coalition of Namibia (DCN).
For many Namibians, issues of rising unemployment, HIV Aids and good governance are of great concern to them, and in their manifestos, the three main parties have all promised to come up with solutions to these main issues.
However, a research carried out by Henning Melber of Namibia Economic Policy Research Unit (NEPRU) showed that political manifestos and programmes do not play a significant role in Namibia's elections, as the electorate mainly relied on past records of parties and personalities in deciding whom to vote for.
The rate of unemployment in Namibia is currently at 30 percent, with the figure set to rise if nothing is done to create more jobs. An average 20,000 people enter the job market every year, but only 12,000 are assured of some jobs.
On the political front, CoD, born of disagreements within SWAPO is opposed to Nujoma's third attempt at presidential office and has campaigned around this and Namibia's involvement in the war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
The national assembly, dominated by SWAPO with 53 of the 78 seats, amended the constitution to allow a third term for Nujoma, agreeing with the argument that the president was indirectly elected by a constituent Assembly in Namibia's 1989 pre-independence elections.
The constitution provides for the direct election of its president by the people but also limits the term of office to two years. SWAPO argued through the legislature that technically, Nujoma faced his first legitimate election by direct vote in the 1994 polls.
A confluence of regional observers is breaking new ground in cross-border election monitoring - three prominent groups are in Namibia ahead of the country's third democratic polls as part of a long-term southern African initiative.
The Parliamentarians from 12 countries under the banner of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Parliamentary Forum have scattered to three strategic regions of Namibia in an exercise designed to strengthen regional cooperation and enhance democratisation among member states.
And the SADC Electoral Commission's Forum, a union of the region's election management bodies, which has maintained a presence in all elections in southern Africa this year, is also in Namibia.
They are complimented by more than 200 observers and monitors - local and regional - from the non-governmental sector.
For the first time, SADC is witnessing an evolutionary trend in regional integration, with formal structures at governmental and non-governmental levels taking precedence over missions from overseas.
"The issue of democratisation is one area of critical concern to us", said SADC Parliamentary Forum Secretary-General Kasuka Mutukwa, briefing a team of regional journalists from Swaziland, Tanzania, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
"There is a lot we can learn from each other. Our observer teams consist of elected members of parliament and the experience will empower them with practical knowledge of elections in other member states," he said.
The parliamentarians, he said, were complimenting the role of the Electoral Commissions to sustain SADC's decade-old pluralist culture.
The observer team, consisting of members of parliament from Angola, Botswana Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe are drawn from both ruling and opposition parties. A similar contingent has been despatched to Mozambique for the 3-4 December elections.
The Parliamentary observer teams will report their findings to a plenary Assembly of national parliaments embracing twelve Speakers and 36 MPs, to be held in Namibia on 14 -16 December.
In an equally supportive gesture, the South African Independent Electoral Commission has supplied 40 computer terminals and other electronic gadgets to Namibia's Results Centre.
South Africa, in June this year, accomplished perhaps the most technologically advanced coverage of elections ever held in Africa and its role in assisting other SADC countries achieve that standard is seen as critical by senior electoral experts.
"The South Africans assisted us with computers; they are teaching us so that we may also assist other SADC countries. A whole lot of SADC countries can assist each other", said Peter Mietzner Chief Media Liaison Officer for Namibia's Electoral Commission.
With 850,000 registered voters from a population estimated at 1.6 million, the Electoral Commission has enlisted the participation of 95 percent of all eligible voters, he said. The figure is higher than the 620,000 recorded in 1994 and Mietzner attributed this to a drive targeted at the majority under 25s who form 60 percent of the population.
Poll results in Namibia are expected within three days after voting, while counting in Mozambique could take up to two weeks in the far-flung rural areas where infrastructure is weak and communications poor. (SARDC).
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