A WHOLE NEW ERA OF SOUTH AFRICAN POLITICS
by Hugh McCullum


The euphoric celebrations are over and President-elect Thabo Mbeki is back to work in his gothic office in the Union Buildings in Pretoria, undoubtedly shuffling the cards around containing the names for his new post-Mandela cabinet.

For the African National Congress (ANC), with its sweep to an overwhelming majority in Parliament in the 2 June election, snatching control of seven Provinces and likely to join coalition governments in the other two - Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal - a whole new era and realignment of political forces is rapidly emerging which, in its own way is even more significant than the historic 1994 elections when non-racial, non-sexist multi-party voting occurred for the first time in the country's history.

ANC won 266 of the 400-seat parliament, thus falling one seat short of the much coveted two thirds majority, which would have enabled them to change aspects of the post-apartheid constitution. Election officials say 85 percent of the country's 18.3 million registered voters cast ballots.

A total of 13 parties will sit in the National Assembly. The rest of the seats were distributed as follows:
The Democratic Party (DP) 38
Inkhata Freedom Party (IFP) 34
New National Party (NNP) 28
United Democratic Movement (UDM) 14
African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) 6
Freedom Front (FF) 3
United Christian Democratic Party (UCDP) 3
Pan-Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC) 3
Federal Alliance (FA) 2
Minority Front (MF) 1
Afrikaner EenheidsBeweging (AEB) 1
Azanian People's Organisation (AZAPO) 1

Although the ANC failed to garner a two-thirds majority, cooperation with one or more of the parties will give it the necessary seats. Already serious talks are being held in KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape provinces about forming "grand coalitions" with ANC. Indeed, the DP itself has talked unofficially about the possibility of similar co-operation of opposition parties in the National Assembly, a move considered doomed, given the DP's aggressive "fight back" campaign sloganeering.

But, perhaps the real political story of this election is the demise of the NNP, successor to the party which ruled apartheid South Africa from 1948 until 1994 and held onto power until former Deputy President F.W de Klerk took it into opposition during the Mandela years.

Trailing in its stronghold of the Western Cape, supplanted as Official Opposition in seven provinces and running behind the DP and IFP nationally, analysts are predicting its demise after more than 50 years of National Party politics.

The crisis facing the party, says University of Port Elizabeth political scientist Susan Booysen is "a life or death one. It went from 20 percent of the vote and official opposition status to fourth place with less than eight percent. It has to face a major realignment with groups like the DP or bring in all the right-wing volk such as (Konstand) Viljoen's white homeland party which could further marginalize it."

People have no idea how badly split the once cohesive Afrikaner community is and how centrist NNP has become. The three other right-wing parties garnered less than one percent.

At party headquarters in Pretoria, Marthinus van Schalkwyk, the bespectacled and benign leader was bewildered.

"I'm shell-shocked. We had hoped to offer a strong opposition to ANC. I don't intend to resign as leader but we must do a radical review of our policies and strategies. We decided to be inclusive. We could have opted for the approach of our predecessor and rallied people on basis of racial feelings but what we will not do, is become part of a right-wing laager that will further isolate the minority groups in this country."

The DP leader Tony Leon pledged to "fight forward" now after his successful "fight back" campaign after surviving a tight contest from the Zulu-based IFP. Still, for a party which grew from less than 1.5 percent to nearly 10 percent based on attracting disaffected members from all parties, but especially the NNP, it was a "smashing victory."

As back-room talks about a "Codesa" of opposition parties begin to emerge, both Leon and van Schalkwyk don't rule it out but the variety of ideologies renders such a move fragile. Would IFP join or realign itself more with ANC? Can such a coalition contain extremists on the left and right, both of whom did so badly?

Indeed, another feature of the election was the collapse of these once-vaunted ideologically based movements. On the left the Azanian People's Organisation (AZAPO) and the Pan-Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC) failed dismally, garnering just 0.5 and 0.7 percent respectively. In fact PAC did so badly that its new leader Bishop Stanley Mogoba has said he will resign.

Similarly, the right too collapsed. Viljoen's Freedom Front (FF) and the Afrikaner Eenheidsbeweging virtually disappeared from the results board.

Only the United Democratic Movement (UDM) led by ANC defector Bantu Holomisa and former NP stalwart Roelf Mayer performed as expected, gaining about 3.5 percent of the national vote and forming the official opposition in three provinces.

"We have done well for a new party. Bantu will be a breath of fresh air in the Parliament and will be the first real black opposition leader," Mayer told a press conference.

What this election finally showed is the maturity of South Africans less than a decade after half a century of racist apartheid. The extremes are falling away, the ANC is hugely popular and the voters are filled with optimism.

As an emotional Mbeki said when he stepped before his frenzied supporters out in the Mid Rand's ANC headquarters, "the women, the poor, black and white, all colours and all sectors of South Africa have unequivocally given ANC a further mandate."

The biblical injunction to turn the other cheek when your enemies revile you seems to have been ANC's strategy to win the landslide victory in the election.

There is no doubt that ANC failed to meet a number of its key promises from the 1994 elections. "Jobs, jobs, jobs was a party promise in those heady days. But came 1999, ANC leaders wouldn't dare try such promise because disgruntled supporters would well retort "Lies, lies, lies".

So, the ANC decided to turn away anger with a quiet truth in its election manifesto -unemployment is not just a problem, it is "a very, very serious problem. Our economy cannot create enough jobs for the 350,000 new job-seekers every year, let alone absorb the current unemployed," the manifesto states.

Honesty, it seems is the best way to build confidence and turn away your enemies' angry accusations. Then, promise to try harder.

"A major national offensive will be launched against the scourge of unemployment, poverty and inequality. We are determined to align all government policies to achieve our objective of sustainable jobs for all at a living wage," the ANC bible reads.

It was a slick campaign. Leaders were calm and cool, seldom raising their voices. The DP shaped itself for a battle royal but ANC refused to fight back which was seen by most voters as a sign of strength, not weakness. To fight the DP would have given it status well beyond its influence on the voting public.
The ANC seems to believe that the importance of its rivals has diminished since 1994 when ANC leader Nelson Mandela actually debated FW de Klerk on national television. This time, president-elect Mbeki declined to debate de Klerk's successor, Martinus van Schalkwyk of the NNP, successor to de Klerk's diminished National Party, or Leon or anyone else.

No doubt, observers say, Mbeki has turned the other cheek to avoid exacerbating racial tensions in South Africa. Race relations are still fragile and the parties divided substantially along racial lines and after winning the election, ANC will have to deal with this fallout. (SARDC)

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