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Not since the second wind of change annulled the one-party system has so much expectation punctuated regional elections. Before the millennium dawns, five elections will have taken place in Southern Africa, possibly changing the complexion of power balances in each country-and certainly putting the regional democracies to the test once again. Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Namibia prepare for the events this year. In the millennium, at least four more countries go to the polls. The elections will be an indicator of the status of democratic development ten years on. More importantly, the proximity of the events provides space for a region genuinely committed to a shared agenda of integration, to take stock of each member states' commitment to the tenets of democracy and good governance. The process begins with Malawi on 25 May, a country that produced some of the most highly competitive legislative elections five years ago. South Africa follows on 2 June and will provide a further insight into the workings of the Proportional Representation (PR) electoral system which a growing number of political players in the region are beginning to favour. Namibia, South Africa and Mozambique subscribe to the PR system based on party lists where the total percentage vote translates into seats in parliament. Most of Britain's former colonies, including Malawi, Tanzania, Lesotho, Zambia and Zimbabwe, use the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) winner-take-all system which is increasingly under fire from political commentators for its tendency to favour single-party dominance, rendering meaningless the percentage vote of the loser. In Malawi, however, the dynamics confound the critics: the non-proportional system yielded a parliament balanced on proportional lines in the 1994 elections. This is what makes the May elections extremely interesting. The balanced outlook of the legislature is due to region-based vote patterns, which makes the proportional outcome something of an "accident". But that does not subtract from the intriguing nature of electioneering and the intricacy of the legislative process. In Malawi, the combined opposition strength has given parliament the necessary clout to keep the executive in check, creating a balance of power between government and legislature uncommon in most African countries. Only through careful negotiations with the two opposition parties, has the country's President Bakili Muluzi, been able to push his government's legislation through. In the 1994 elections, Muluzi's United Democratic Front (UDF), took 48 percent of the seats with 46 percent of the votes, the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) 32 percent of the seats with 34 votes, and the Alliance For Democracy (AFORD) 20 percent of the seats with 19 percent votes. This translated into 85 seats for UDF, 56 MCP and 36 AFORD. Realising the advantages of a coalition, the opposition have sealed an alliance in the hope of capturing more parliamentary seats and maintaining their influence. They have gone even further: leaders of the two parties, Gwanda Chakwamba for MCP and Chakufwa Chihana for AFORD, aim to contest the presidential elections on one ticket (Chakuamba for president and Chihana, vice president). However, the Electoral Commission headed by Justice William Hanjahanja holds that a duet is not possible because the ballot papers cannot accommodate symbols for two candidates or parties. The law, he says, does not allow for that. A Pan-African News Agency report recently quoted Justice Hanjahanja as saying candidates cannot be funded in the same election by two political parties. This position is being challenged by the Law Society of Malawi which says the constitution is flexible on the issue. Law Society Chairman Maxon Mbendera argues that section 80(4) of the constitution merely states that the vice president shall be elected concurrently and shall appear on the same ballot as the president. The constitution, Mbendera adds, does not state that the running mate shall come from the same party. The debate rages on without resolution, even as elections draw closer. Political analysts agree that an MCP-AFORD alliance poses a substantial threat to the Muluzi-UDF domain. MCP, which has its support base in the central region, and AFORD in the north, are in short, trying to transform the unofficial, on-off opposition liaisons (in parliament) of the first five years, into an all pervading strategy that should sweep both the presidency and the national assembly. Muluzi, invincible in his home area - the southern region - is still considered favourite to retain the post. Analysts believe the alleged atrocities of the MCP under the late Kamuzu Banda are riveted on the minds of the general populace and are certain to work against Chakuamba and MCP. That aura of distrust, combined with the frailty of Chihana as a candidate, might conspire to undermine the opposition alliance, should it materialise. Chihana's popularity within AFORD ranks is said to be flagging; insiders accuse him of centralising authority and of undemocratic practices. Although generally, the effects of structural adjustments have impacted negatively on the majority rural population; the rate of crime is higher, prices steeper and corruption on the increase; analysts still believe the voters will choose the new order under the UDF once again. Worries about the late registration have permeated since January. The exercise started mid-March against a tight deadline, and fears of a further postponement began to rise. In Malawi, postponement does not come easily as the transitional regulations provided for strict adherence to schedule. The Electoral Commission has been educating the various publics about the process and allaying fears of further delays in the elections as speculation abounds. Whatever the case may be in the end, Malawi's second pluralist elections promise stiff competition at presidential and, more likely, legislative levels. Legislative elections in South Africa are very much unlike Malawi's. The African National Congress (ANC) is set to dominate the elections as it did in 1994. The issue now is whether the minority-based parties can prevent the ANC obtaining a two-thirds majority in parliament which will allow it to change the constitution without reference to the opposition. Under the List-PR electoral system, the smaller parties were able to gain seats in parliament. Seven parties in all were represented based on the percentage vote claimed. The ANC won 252 seats, the National Party (NP) 82, the Inkhata Freedom Party (IFP) 43, the Freedom Front (FF) nine, the Democratic Party seven, the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) five and the African Christian Democratic Party two seats. (The president of South Africa is elected indirectly from members of parliament). The ANC and the NP were wedded into a constitutionally-defined Government of National Unity (GNU), from which the latter withdrew in June 1996, finding itself unable to influence change within this structure. The opposition is graced with some new comers, notably the United Democratic Front (UDM) of former ANC stalwart Bantu Holomisa and former NP leader Rolf Meyer. Holomisa, one-time ruler of Transkei Bantustan under the apartheid system, and Meyer came together in 1996 to create the UDM, thought at the time to have the potential to be a leading opposition party. The two fell out with top leaderships in their respective parties. Rivalry between supporters of ANC and UDM is intense: clashes between supporters in the Western Cape have resulted in fatalities, raising fears of election violence. However, most South Africans hope, despite the inter-party friction, that the extraordinary atmosphere of goodwill that characterised the 1994 elections will prevail The UDM does have a constituency amongst the black majority population and this, some analysts believe, might contribute to curtailing ANC ambitions to attain absolute parliamentary power. The IFP, on the contrary, moved from a polarised position on constitutional agreements between ANC and NP prior to the 1994 elections, to a close relationship with the ruling party in the aftermath. Speculation of an alliance with the ANC abounds although IFP President Chief Gatsha Buthelezi denies them. Assuming the role of official opposition in parliament is the ambition of all the opposition parties, since dislodging the ANC is clearly out of the question. The DP is optimistic of achieving that goal bolstered by its showing in the 1995 municipal elections. The DP followed this up by scooping six former NP seats at by-elections in 1996. Headed by Tony Leon, the DP is drawing support from areas previously viewed as the domain of the NP-now called the New National Party (NNP). Whether the opposition parties will manage to prevent an ANC two-thirds majority in the house is currently hard to gauge. But perhaps one of the more significant aspects of the elections will be the transition from President Nelson Mandela to President Thabo Mbeki. Mandela retires at the end of the term in June, leaving reign to Mbeki, whose own profile internationally, has steadily risen over the years as he whips up the drive for an African Renaissance - a revivalist call to excellence by the peoples of the continent. While Mandela is revered as the founder of the new South Africa, the conjurer of the dream for a multi-racial democracy, Mbeki is seen more as the man who will make it happen. Firmer, younger and determined to succeed beyond the realms of his vast country, Mbeki leads SADC's most influential economy - certainly Africa's largest - into the third millennium with high expectations from the majority black population. South Africa faces worrying increase in crime, causing the opposition to make the re-introduction of the death penalty a major campaign point, one that registers positively on many blacks and whites. Mbeki has stamped his authority on the corridors of power already, inheriting the party chair at the close of last year, and spearheading the campaign for a bigger ANC, and a better South Africa. His herculean challenge is to transform a country distorted by more than 300 years of white rule and 46 years of apartheid, without jeopardising reconciliation. Many hope he will succeed. (SARDC) |
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