The reform and expansion of the system is occurring in a context where the education sector itself is suffering the effects of a phenomenon which threatens to knock down all the gains made since the relaunching of the sector in the post-war period, and to force a reformulation of strategies and programmes.

This is the spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the general effects of which on Mozambican society, and on the education sector in particular , were discussed in Chapter 4. This epidemic, which is affecting millions of Mozambicans, will force upon the sector an additional or generational and structural effort to ensure that its negative effects can be minimised. It is estimated that 1.2 million Mozambicans are infected with the virus. AIDS has caused a disproportionate increase in the number of deaths in the country and the official estimates tell us that the epidemic has dramatically increased the number of orphans.

The major challenge in facing HIV/AIDS is that education will be called upon to play a significant r ole in any national strategy to hold back the spread of the epidemic, at a time when the sector itself is being harassed by the negative effects of the epidemic.

Preliminary estimates indicate that the sector may lose 17% of its staff. That represents the loss of 9,200 teachers and 123 senior managers. The central provinces, where the largest number of teachers are concentrated, will lose the highest percentage of educators, about 23%. HIV/AIDS will thus impose profound changes on education. The sector should prepare itself to deal with the eventual loss of teaching and managerial staff, with high costs in human and material resources.

The loss of staff caused by the epidemic will extend to other economic and social sectors. This situation will expose education to assault by other economic sectors who will try to compensate for the loss of staff who have fallen victim to AIDS by tempting teachers and educational managers with offers of conditions that the public education sector will find it difficult to match. It is urgent to find mechanisms to pr event the likely aggravation of the drainage of educational staff to other sectors, which could create a vicious cycle and undermine the country's development potential over the medium and long terms.

A considerable part of the school population will consist of orphans whose parents have succumbed to the epidemic. In 1999, the number of orphans whose parents died of AIDS was estimated at 258,000. The orphans will need special educational care in order to over come the traumas arising from the deaths of their parents, and the system will have to prepare itself properly to provide such care. This will require specific training making it possible for educators to deal adequately with the special needs of this category of pupils.

The financial costs of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the education sector are estimated at an additional US$ 110.5 million over 10 years, excluding expenditure on prevention. These additional sums will be spent on medical car e, the training of additional teachers, payment of sickness benefits, and also include the costs of inefficiency derived from worsening repeat and drop-out rates which are already very high.