One of the specificities of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is that it not only robs the country of many of its most productive individuals, but it also imposes many burdens on society. One of these heavy bur dens is the sharp increase in the number of orphans. In the year 2000, there were about 500,000 orphans in Mozambique; in two-thirds of these cases their parents had died of AIDS. This means that in a scenario without AIDS only 162,000 children would be orphans.

Projections from the National Statistics Institute and from the Health Ministry (2000) show that the worst is still to come. By the year 2010 there will be about 1.4 million orphans, and in 80% of cases their parents will have died of AIDS. In other words, in addition to a figure of some 280,000 orphans in a scenario without HIV/AIDS, the country will have to establish the conditions to deal with the special needs of a further 1.1 million AIDS orphans - that is four times more.

The country will face difficulties in mobilising the resources needed to face this new emergency, particularly when one bears in mind that 69% of the population, or about 11.7 million Mozambicans, survive on a consumption of less than 5,473 meticais (40 US cents in 1997) a day, and are therefore classed as "absolutely poor".

Table 4. 3: Number of orphans by region, 2000-2010
Year	South		Centre		North		National
	AIDS	Other Causes	AIDS	Other Causes	AIDS	Other Causes	AIDS	Other Causes
2000	33,034	37,022	229,794	66,855	78,603	58,532	341,431	162,408
2001	47,197	36,934	282,180	71,824	104,298	60,121	433,675	168,878
2002	63,707	36,956	333,417	76,732	131,339	68,048	528,463	181,736
2003	82,153	37,353	382,665	83,314	158,781	75,124	623,599	195,791
2004	101,916	37,935	429,153	89,628	185,774	81,503	716,843	209,066
2005	122,062	38,422	470,402	99,941	210,827	86,640	803,291	225,003
2006	141,944	38,991	506,947	109,267	233,683	91,281	882,574	239,539
2007	161,086	39,445	539,447	116,784	254,421	95,042	954,954	251,271
2008	179,146	41,564	568,003	132,543	272,963	105,292	1,020,112	279,400
2009	196,006	41,988	593,870	139,552	289,819	109,057	1,079,695	290,598
2010	211,580	41,479	617,403	141,250	305,186	109,368	1,134,169	292,097
Source: INE/ Ministry of Health, 2000

The gravity of the situation is mobilising social forces, and one notes a movement aimed at publicising messages on the dangers of the epidemic and how to pr event it. This brings together a wide range of forces from politicians at the highest level and of all sensitivities to spiritual and religious leaders, in an authentic crusade in what some sectors are now calling a battle for life. President Joaquim Chissano described the situation of the epidemic in the following terms in his State of the Nation address in 2000: "The death brought by HIV/AIDS is advancing with giant strides..... The youth, the lifeblood of the nation, is being profoundly affected. From the tests undertaken in some schools, we know that more than 20% of our future is doomed" (Chissano: 2000, 4).

The great unknown lies in assessing to what extent the messages will have an impact on the target groups. It is in these messages that hope lies, because the experience of other countries shows us that, despite its rapid spread in southern Africa, HIV is not propagated easily. Abstinence, or the correct and consistent use of condoms during "high risk" sexual relations, or sexual encounters with occasional partners - which are the main contents of preventive messages - together with the speedy treatment of other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), and abstinence during the period of treatment, can reduce the spread of the virus.