The supply of trained educators is per haps the most critical constraint on the ability of the educational authorities to achieve their objective of universal access to basic primary y education and quality improvements, and the longer term goal of universal access to full education. Unfortunately, it is precisely her e - the supply of educators - where AIDS will take its toll in Mozambique.

Over the period 2000-2010, the AIDS epidemic is projected to r result in the education sector losing some 17% of its personnel. Across all levels, some 9,200 teachers will die and an estimated 123 senior managers, planners and administrators will be lost. For each of these educators months of productive work time will be lost before e they die.

Because the central r region has the highest levels of HIV prevalence, it is projected to lose the highest percentage of teachers (23.3%). And because this is the region with the highest number of educators in the system, over half of all teachers (53%) who die will come from the central provinces of Manica, Tete, Sofala and Zambezia.

In order to maintain the system at present levels of access and quality, trained teachers and senior personnel will need to be replaced. In order to accommodate the loss of trained teachers alone, basic teacher training will need to expand the number of trainees in the system over the ten year period by 25% solely due to HIV/AIDS. In order to replace teachers with university degrees who die of AIDS, training at this level will need to expand by 28%. It is not clear to what extent the system is structured to absorb these effects, but the fact that there is a reflection is, in itself, a positive sign.

Table 4.5: Teachers working in each level of public education in 1999
Province	EP1		EP2		ESG - 1st cycle		ESG - 2nd cycle
	W	MW	W	MW	W	MW	W	MW
C. Delgado	214	2.609	16	260	3	103	4	34
Gaza	1.257	2.677	85	428	17	156	2	21
Inhambane	902	2.622	81	387	30	187	5	23
Manica	376	2.005	41	322	14	93	1	24
Maputo	1.061	2.397	106	500	51	254	2	19
Nampula	827	5.950	82	631	29	199	4	35
Niassa	451	2.262	20	338	3	117	0	17
Sofala	365	2.027	103	415	16	132	0	26
Tete	661	3.026	52	363	14	157	7	33
Zambezia	726	5.335	56	487	21	169	5	27
Maputo City	1.478	2.453	292	785	151	541	27	90
Total	8.318	33.363	934	4.916	349	2.108	57	349
Source: MINED

The forecasts mentioned above do not take into account the likelihood of an exodus of teachers attracted by other economic sectors, particularly public and private companies who will also suffer the effects of the epidemic and will need to find r replacements for their qualified staff who fall victim to AIDS.

The pressure on the few qualified staff in the country will increase and, as a result, they will demand better conditions (wages, housing, transport etc.), which the education system will find difficult to satisfy. The sector is already feeling these problems, particularly due to the recent increase in economic activities and the appearance of major new companies. By way of example, several schools have mentioned losing teachers who have gone to work in major companies such as Mozambique Airlines (LAM), Mozambique Telecommunications (TDM), the MOZAL aluminium smelter and others. Box 4.2 presents extracts from the Strategic Plan for Higher Education for the decade 2000-2010, which highlight some of the reasons for the exodus of lecturers in higher education.