Impact on the demand for education For the purposes of this study, demand for education is measured as the number of children likely to seek education over the period 2000-2010. In the Mozambican context this has been measured by determining the number of children within a specific age group likely to be in school.

The age groups used conform to those actually in school, and not those who are the corr ect age for school, since many pupils in Mozambique are, in theor y, too old for the grades they are attending due to the repetition rates, late enrolment and other factors. These percentages were then applied to the population projections in the demographic model for the "without AIDS" and the "with AIDS" scenarios. The numbers in school were progressively incr eased over the projection period, based on the average gr owth in that particular level of the Mozambican education system over the past five years.

There are at present some 2.6 million childr en in the Mozambican education system. The vast majority (87.9%) of these ar e in EP1. While the number of children in EP1 will continue to incr ease, even in the face of the AIDS epidemic, the rate of incr ease will decline. This r esults from fewer childr en being bor n as a result of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, while those who are born already infected with HIV die before they enter school. By 2010 it is estimated that ther e will be 13% fewer childr en in EP1 than would be the case without AIDS.

Table 4.4: Evolution of the gross enrolment rate in EP1 by province and gender (%), 1997 - 2000
Province	1997			1998			1999			2000
	MW	M	W	MW	M	W	MW	M	W	MW	M	W
C. Delgado	91.1	105.5	76.8	99.2	112.8	85.7	103.7	114.8	92.9	134.7	149.1	120.5
Gaza	96.4	99.2	93.8	106.9	109.2	104.6	116.4	118.0	114.8	118.3	118.4	118.2
Inhambane	94.9	98.8	91.1	98.3	101.1	95.5	110.7	112.7	108.7	116.6	119.4	113.7
Manica	83.5	98.1	69.1	84.6	95.9	73.5	96.7	109.1	84.3	105.7	116.7	94.7
Maputo	108.1	111.5	104.8	101.1	103.1	99.2	112.8	113.7	111.9	121.9	119.8	124.1
Nampula	85.1	99.5	70.5	80.9	91.3	70.3	92.6	101.2	83.9	100.8	108.3	93.3
Niassa	97.6	110.9	84.2	105.2	115.6	94.7	97.2	104.2	90.3	115.0	124.1	105.9
Sofala	65.9	81.1	50.8	70.6	86.1	55.0	93.9	109.1	78.7	99.4	112.1	86.6
Tete	77.0	85.7	68.4	92.2	100.6	83.8	94.6	102.2	86.9	102.9	109.1	96.7
Zambezia	90.8	104.7	76.8	88.4	100.2	76.5	115.2	129.1	101.1	125.6	137.1	114.0
Maputo City	73.0	74.5	71.5	80.1	81.6	78.7	92.0	91.2	92.9	106.3	104.6	108.0
Total	86.9	98.1	75.7	89.4	98.8	79.9	102.5	111.3	93.6	113.3	121.2	105.4
M - Men; WM - Women Source:MINED, 2000

While the EP1 projections indicate a decline in the rate of incr ease in demand for education at this level (that is, demand will flatten), this does not imply that EP1 access objectives outlined in the Education Sector Strategic Plan will be thr eatened. The reason is that the system has expanded ver y rapidly over the past thr ee years (1997 - 2000). Gross enrolment was close to 90% in 2000, which is the 2002 objective. However,as the epidemic progresses and the demographic structure of the population changes, these strategic planning objectives relating to access will be threatened.

In Mozambique, where many children ar e not in school, the understanding of the impact of HIV/AIDS on enr olment is complex. The assumption is that the lack of space at EP1 is not the main reason for non-attendance. Other, more qualitative, economic, social and cultural factors are involved.

However, at the higher levels (EP2, ESG1, ESG2 and technical schools), the lack of schools and their location is the main constraint on demand. The demand for education at these other levels (EP2, ESG1, ESG2, technical and higher education) may therefore not be directly affected by HIV/AIDS. At these levels the demand for education will be constrained by the lack of schools and their location, not by a decline in the number of students. As a result the number of childr en qualified for entry into higher levels of the system will continue to exceed supply substantially, despite a decline, due to HIV/AIDS, in the number of young Mozambicans of relevant ages for these school levels.

There are, at the same time, cir cumstances that enhance risk. These include wide age-ranges across students in the same class/classr ooms, the need for many children to attend school away fr o m home (only 67% of rural communities have a local primary school, and only 2% have a secondary school), and the fact that many teachers live away fr om home etc. All this transforms the school itself into a place of sexual contact, and therefore a place favourable for the spr ead of HIV (MPF, 1998).

These factors, both positive and negative, place additional burdens and costs on the educational system, requiring time-consuming and costly curricular changes, teacher training interventions, extra-curricular school-based interventions, enforcement of laws about teacher -pupil sexual relations etc.